The Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers are off to much different starts in the 2025-26 season, as Milwaukee has won four of its first six games while the Pacers are 1-5 and extremely banged up.
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Indiana not only doesn’t have Tyrese Haliburton for the season, but Andrew Nembhard, Benedict Mathurin, Obi Toppin and others have missed time, putting the Pacers on track to end up in the lottery just one season after making the NBA Finals.
These teams have matched up in the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, with the Pacers knocking Milwaukee out both times. Now, Myles Turner returns to Indiana for the first time since he left the franchise for the Bucks in free agency.
This should be a fun one, and the Bucks are favored on the road.
Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Monday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Moneyline
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Bucks Injury Report
Pacers Injury Report
Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet
The Pacers have been a fun opponent for Antetokounmpo to face, as he’s averaging 31.1 points, 13.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists in his last 10 games against Indiana. Now, with Myles Turner on Giannis’ team in Milwaukee, Indiana has even less rim protection to deal with the star big man in this matchup.
This season, Antetokounmpo has scored 26 or more points in every game, clearing 31.5 points in three of his five contests.
He should be in the mix to clear this line once again, as the Pacers are just 25th in the NBA in opponent points per game and 25th in opponent points in the paint per game.
Antetokounmpo does most of his damage from inside the arc, leading the league in field goals made per game (13.0), 2-pointers attempted per game and 2-pointers made per game. He should have a field day against this Indiana defense on Monday night.
Milwaukee is off to a 4-2 start this season and is a road favorite on Monday against the one-win Indiana Pacers, who are down Obi Toppin, Benedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell and of course Tyrese Haliburton.
The Pacers rank just 27th in the NBA in net rating, and they’re going to have a hard time keeping up in this game offensively against a Bucks team that is fourth in the NBA in offensive rating and first in effective field goal percentage in the 2025-26 season.
The Pacers did upset the Golden State Warriors, but they needed 27 points from Pascal Siakam, 31 from Aaron Nesmith and 25 from Quenton Jackson to win at home by five.
Indiana had just 15 bench points in that game, and it simply doesn’t have the depth necessary to compete with a relatively healthy Bucks team.
Pick: Bucks -5.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.
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