May 7, 2026, 2:27 p.m. ET
The St. Louis Cardinals (21-15) and the San Diego Padres (22-14) open a 4-game series Thursday at Petco Park in San Diego, California. First pitch is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze MLB odds around the Cardinals vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
2025 season series: Padres won 4-3, including 2-1 at home
The Cardinals lost 6-2 at home against the Milwaukee Brewers Wednesday as slight favorites (-110) as the Over (7.5) just came in. St. Louis cobbled together just 4 hits, with 1B Alec Burleson going 1 for 4 with a 2-out RBI, and LF Jose Fermin posted a walk and an RBI.
The Padres won 2 of 3 games in San Francisco, including a 5-1 series-clinching win Wednesday as slight underdogs (-104) as the Under (8.5) cashed. SS Xander Bogaerts hit a 2-run homer in his only at-bat, while 1B Gavin Sheets also launched a solo shot. The Padres have won 3 of the previous 4 outings, while the Under is on a 4-1 run.
Cardinals at Padres projected starters
LHP Matthew Liberatore vs. RHP Michael King
Liberatore (1-1, 4.50 ERA) will make his eighth start of 2026. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 in 36 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 B, 4 K in 7-2 home win vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Friday
- 2026 road splits (2 starts): 0-0, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K
- 2025 vs. Padres (2 starts): 0-2, 2.08 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 4 BB, 4 K
- Career vs. Padres: 0-3, 2.57 ERA (14 IP, 4 ER), 1 HR, 5 BB, 10 K, 1.36 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 in 7 appearances (2 starts)
King (3-2, 2.95 ERA) will make his eighth start of 2026. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 HR, 3 BB, 5 K in 4-0 home setback vs. Chicago White Sox Saturday
- 2026 home splits (3 starts): 1-1, 2.65 ERA (17 IP, 5 ER), 0 HR, 9 BB, 16 K, 1.24 WHIP
- Last start/career vs. Cardinals (Aug. 29, 2024): Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 3 K in 4-1 road loss
Cardinals at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:06 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Cardinals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Padres -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cardinals +1.5 (-155) | Padres -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Cardinals at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 4, Cardinals 3
The PADRES (-170) are a little costly, but worth a look behind King. He is trying to rebound after a tough outing against the White Sox last time out.
The Cardinals have won 10 of the past 12 road games, including a 4-game sweep in Pittsburgh last time out April 27-30. There is risk here, as St. Louis has been playing well. However, venue matters, and King should be able to pitch the home team to a narrow win.
BACKING CARDINALS +1.5 (-155) is worth a roll of the dice if you don’t trust the Padres to get the job done by 2 or more runs.
Liberatore has pitched well enough, and King was tripped up by the lowly White Sox last time out. St. Louis has won 10 of 12 games on the road, too, so going to Petco won’t affect it.
UNDER 8 (-110) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.
The Under has a 2-1-1 edge in the past 4 games for the Cardinals, while going low at a 4-3 clip in the previous 7 road contests. For the Padres, the Under has hit in 4 of the previous 5 outings. The Under is 3-1 in King’s previous 4 outings, too.
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