Having gone 2-2 in their first four games on the road, the Royals have a prime opportunity to take at least one of the next two and end their road trip 3-3. That record would be all anyone could have expected when the Royals headed west. However, if they win today, they’ll have guaranteed that record and given themselves a shot to actually gain some ground by completing a sweep of the Mariners tomorrow. Still, that all starts tonight.
Seth Lugo will take the mound tonight. Last time out, he had easily his worst start of the season; he allowed 6 runs in the first 2 innings. But he buckled down and got through 4.1 more innings and only allowed a lone additional run. That gave the Royals a chance to chip away at the Angels’ lead and eventually walk it off in the tenth. Today, he will probably need to pitch a bit better early on.
Lugo did face the Mariners last year and he put together one of his better performances of the season, striking out 7 and allowing 1 run on 8 baserunners over 6 innings to earn a victory and give the Royals a 4-game split in Seattle. A similar performance could be very meaningful for a Royals offense that appears to have found some of its mojo in the last couple of weeks.
That offense has a tall task ahead of it, facing Emerson Hancock. Hancock was a moderately well-regarded prospect before he debuted in 2023, but seems to have finally figured himself out in the early-going of this season at age 27 with a 2.86 ERA in 34.2 innings across 6 starts. You’ll not that averages out to fewer than 6 innings a start, however. And he has had trouble with the long ball this year; he’s already allowed 7 in this short season.
I was fascinated by this TJStats pitching summary. It seems that while he’s been very good at putting his four-seamer and sinker in the strike zone, all of his other pitches are often outside the zone, and only his four-seamer gets any whiffs – and even that is only high for its pitch type. The fastball isn’t even that fast by modern standards, averaging 95. So I went back to his FanGraphs summary, and I figured out what’s going on. He has stranded 95.4% of runners. The league average is usually in the mid-70s, and so far this year, it’s 71.9%. His 2.86 ERA is stellar, but his 4.61 FIP tells the story of a still-mediocre pitcher. The regression alarms could hardly be louder. That doesn’t mean he’ll implode on this start. But hey, we can hope!
The Royals will use an identical batting order to last night’s for the first time since April 20 and 21 against the Orioles. They’re 1-0 using this one, so why not try it again? For those who are curious, the Royals have used 23 different lineups in their 33 games to start the year. Q really is trying to figure out the best way to deploy his 13 position players to their greatest effect.
The Mariners reorganize a bit with a righty on the mound. Luke Raley and Dominic Canzone will be in for Connor Joe and Mitch Garver. That means Lugo will only get two right-handers to do battle with, and it’s not like Julio Rodríguez or Randy Arozarena are exactly easy outs. Still, it’s his job to get the opponents out and he’ll need to if KC wants to win.
