Investors Anticipate Market Volatility Ahead of Supreme Court Tariff Ruling

Trump and his team have long promised that any tariffs struck down will be replaced using different legal authorities. But midterm election politics may make that a complex proposition, especially after months in which most of Trump’s moves have been in the direction of scaling back tariffs.

Yet the president has said repeatedly in recent weeks that he’ll “figure something out” if the decision doesn’t go his way, but has added, “it won’t be as beautiful as it is right now.”

The eventual decision — especially the key question of refunds — could cause weeks of chaos for companies if the justices rule that these “blanket” tariffs were levied illegally and require retroactive refunds.

The court could also strike the tariffs but not require refunds — or keep things the way they are.

Another closely watched decision possible in this coming stretch of decisions is the case around the Trump administration’s effort to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook. Oral arguments were held in January, with the justices sounding deeply skeptical of the Trump administration’s case against the central bank.

Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances

Justices also appeared skeptical, perhaps slightly less so, of the White House’s case for using emergency powers to enact tariffs. That November hearing ended with significant uncertainty about how they would ultimately rule.

Chief Justice John Roberts offered the most pointed back-and-forth. He posited that regardless of why a president makes his moves, “the vehicle is an imposition of taxes on Americans, and that has always been the core power of Congress.”

He expressed further skepticism that any president’s foreign policy prerogatives could “trump that basic power of Congress.”

The arguments also featured a discussion of what possible refunds could entail.

“It seems to me like it could be a mess,” Justice Amy Coney Barrett said.

Investors have been on alert for a decision since December. As for what the delay in a ruling means, Amy Howe at the closely watched SCOTUSblog recently offered a few possibilities.

The holdup could stem from a majority writing an opinion that would uphold the tariffs, or one that punts the question of refunds to the lower courts. Or it may simply be a delicate decision that takes time to write.

“Whatever the result, one thing is clear,” Howe wrote. “The court acts on its own timeline, rather than on the schedule that litigants, court watchers, and the press might prefer.”

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson offered little in the way of hints when she was asked on CBS recently about the delay in the tariff decision.

It “takes a while to write” an opinion, she responded, adding that “the court is going through its process of deliberation, and the American people expect for us to be thorough and clear in our determinations.”

This story has been updated with additional developments.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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